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刘光凤 ， 罗巧巧 ，周   直

 

（ 重庆交通大学 经济与管理学院 ，重庆 400074)

摘   要 ：针对 PPP 模式下居住建筑节能改造项目投资风险评价问题 ，建立环境风险 、合规性风险 、管理风  险 、融资风险 、建设风险和运营风险六个方面的投资风险评价指标体系 ，采用层次分析法确定风险因素权重， 通过专家问卷调查获取风险等级评价矩阵 ，运用集对势分析风险态势 ，运用偏联系数理论预测风险发生趋势， 构建基于五元联系数的 PPP 模式下居住建筑节能改造项目投资风险评价模型 ，并结合哈尔滨市 PPP 模式居住建  筑节能改造项目进行实证分析。结果表明：该评价模型能实现 PPP 模式下居住建筑节能改造项目投资风险静态  评价与动态分析的有效结合 ，为社会资本方投资风险管理提供参考。

关键词：PPP;  建筑节能改造 ；集对分析 ；风险评价

中图分类号：TU984. 12           

文献标志码：A            

文章编号： 1005- 8249   (2024)  05- 0135- 06

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2024.05 .025

 

LIU Guangfeng ,  LUO Qiaoqiao ,  ZHOU Zhi

(School of Economics and Management ,  Chongqing Jiaotong University ,  Chongqing 400074 ,  China)   

Abstract: In view of the investment risk evaluation of PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation project, an investment risk evaluation index system in six aspects of environment risk, compliance risk, management risk, financing risk, construction risk and operation risk was established, the weight of Risk factor was determined by the analytic hierarchy process, the risk rating evaluation matrix was obtained by expert questionnaire, the static risk situation was analyzed by the set pair potential, and the risk occurrence trend was analyzed by the partial coefficient theory, This paper constructs an investment risk evaluation model of PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation project based on the five yuan connection number, and conducts an empirical analysis with a PPP residential building energy-saving renovation project in Harbin. The research results indicate that the investment risk of this project is high, which is consistent with the actual engineering situation. This evaluation model can effectively combine static evaluation and dynamic analysis of investment risks in PPP mode residential building energy-saving renovation projects, providing reference for social capital to manage investment risks.

Keywords:PPP; building energy-saving renovation; set pair analysis; risk evaluation

*基金项目：重庆市教育科学规划青年课题  “重庆高校工程 伦理教育的关键机制及对策研究 ”(K22YY207694) 。

作者简介：刘光凤  (1987—) , 女，博士，讲师，研究方向： 工程管理 、风险管理 、招投标管理。

通信作者： 罗巧巧  (1999—) , 女，硕士研究生，研究方向： 工程项目管理和风险管理。

收稿日期：2023- 07- 15