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胡文奎¹ ,  薛明华¹ ,  刘卫卫¹ ,  鹿传磊^{2 , 3}

( 1 .  济南市勘察测绘研究院 ，济南 250101 ;

2.  中国地质调查局哈尔滨自然资源综合调查中心 ，哈尔滨 150081 ;

3 .  自然资源部哈尔滨黑土地地球关键带野外科学观测研究站 ，哈尔滨 150086 )

摘   要 ：为了提高滑坡稳定性分析和治理方案的合理性， 以云南省凤庆滑坡为工程背景，采用强度折减法计算了滑坡稳定性系数 ，并基于蒙特卡洛模拟和可靠度理论分析了滑坡的失效概率。通过 Spearman 系数分析了 岩土参数对稳定性系数和坡体位移的敏感性。研究结果表明，该滑坡的稳定性系数为 0. 863 ,  经过 “削坡 ＋格构 锚杆＋截排水 ”的综合治理后，失效概率降低至 1 . 6% ,  滑坡处于稳定状态。对稳定性系数敏感性最大的四个参数分别为全风化砂岩的内摩擦角、内聚力 、粉质黏土的内聚力和内摩擦角，而粉质黏土和全风化砂岩的天然重 度对稳定性系数的敏感性为负。该研究为类似工程背景下的滑坡稳定性可靠度分析提供了参考。

关键词：可靠度理论 ；滑坡 ；稳定性系数 ；蒙特卡洛模拟 ；滑坡治理

中图分类号：TU443           

文献标志码：A            

文章编号： 1005- 8249  (2025)  01- 0156- 07 

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .01 .029

 

HU Wenkui ¹  ,  XUE Minghua¹  ,  LIU Weiwei ¹  ,  LU Chuanlei^2 , 3

( 1 . Ji ’nan Geotechnical Investigation and Surveying Institute ,   Ji ’nan 250101 ,   China;

2. Harbin Natural Resources Comprehensive Survev Center ,   China Geological Suvey ,   Harbin 15008l ,   China;  3. Station of Earth Critical Zone in Black Soil of Harbin ,  Ministry of Natural Resources ,  Harbin 150086 ,  China)

Abstract: To enhance the rationality of landslide stability analysis and remediation strategies, this study takes the Fengqing landslide in Yunnan Province as the engineering context. The stability coefficient of the landslide was calculated using the strength reduction method, and the failure probability was analyzed based on Monte Carlo simulation and reliability theory. The sensitivity of geotechnical parameters to the stability coefficient and slope displacement was assessed using the Spearman coefficient. The results indicate that the stability factor of the landslide is 0.863 before remediation. After comprehensive remediation involving “slope reduction, grid anchors, and drainage interception,” the failure probability is 1.6%, and the landslide is stable. The four parameters with the highest sensitivity to the stability coefficient are the internal friction angle of fully weathered sandstone (0.3292), cohesion (0.2594), cohesion of silty clay (0.2040), and internal friction angle (0.2000), while the natural unit weight of silty clay and fully weathered sandstone shows negative sensitivity to the stability coefficient. This study provides a reference for reliability analysis of landslide stability under similar engineering contexts.

Key words: reliability theory; landslides; stability coefficients; Monte Carlo simulation; landslide management

作者简介： 胡文奎  (1979—) ,  男 ，本科 ，高级工程师 ，研究方向：岩土工程专业技术与管理。

通信作者：鹿传磊  (1983—) ,  男 ，本科 ，高级工程师 ，研究方向： 工程勘查技术与施工管理。

收稿日期：2024 - 05 - 07