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王荣荣 ，王   猛 ，魏中凯

 

（河南省第四地质勘查院有限公司 ，郑州 450001)

摘   要 ：为准确实现滑坡灾害的态势评估， 以滑坡变形数据为基础，先开展其变形特征分析，再利用变分模态分解开展变形数据的多尺度变量提取，以得到若干模态分量；同时，通过极限学习机和改进麻雀搜索算法构建滑坡变形预测模型，并利用预测结果实现滑坡灾害态势评估分析。研究表明：在监测时段内，各监测点的累计变形量介于 84. 16 ~ 212. 48 mm 之间，即滑坡整体累计变形已相对较大，且变形速率也具较大的波动范围， 因此，该滑坡变形特征显著；同时，变分模态分解能有效实现滑坡变形数据的多尺度变量提取，并由预测结果可知，多尺度变量提取 处 理 及 参 数 优 化 处 理 均 能 有 效 提 高 预 测 精 度 ，所 得 预 测 结 果 的 相 对 误 差 主 要 间 于  1 . 98 %~ 2. 14 % ,  具有较优预测效果 ，且按不利原则 ，滑坡的灾害态势将会进一步加重，需尽快开展防灾整治。取 处 理 及 参 数 优 化 处 理 均 能 有 效 提 高 预 测 精 度 ，所 得 预 测 结 果 的 相 对 误 差 主 要 间 于  1 . 98 %~ 2. 14 % ,  具有较优预测效果 ，且按不利原则 ，滑坡的灾害态势将会进一步加重 ，需尽快开展防灾整治。

关键词：滑坡 ；变分模态分解 ；变形预测 ；相对误差 ；灾害态势

中图分类号：TU196           

文献标志码：A            

文章编号： 1005- 8249   (2025)  01- 0150- 06 

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .01 .028

 

WANG Rongrong ,  WANG Meng ,  WEI Zhongkai

(Henan Fourth Geological Exploration Institute Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou 450001 ,   China)

Abstract:To accurately assess the situation of landslide disasters, based on landslide deformation data, deformation characteristic analysis is carried out first, and then multi-scale variable extraction of deformation data is carried out using variational mode decomposition to obtain several modal components; At the same time, a landslide deformation prediction model is constructed through extreme learning machines and improved sparrow search algorithms, and the prediction results are used to achieve landslide disaster situation assessment and analysis. The analysis results show that during the monitoring period, the cumulative deformation of each monitoring point ranges from 84.16 to 212.48 mm, indicating that the overall cumulative deformation of the landslide is relatively large, and the deformation rate also has a large fluctuation range. Therefore, the deformation characteristics of the landslide are significant; At the same time, variational mode decomposition can effectively extract multi-scale variables from landslide deformation data, and the prediction results show that both multi-scale variable extraction and parameter optimization can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The relative error of the obtained prediction results mainly ranges from 1.98% to 2.14%, which has a better prediction effect. According to the principle of disadvantage, the disaster situation of landslides will further worsen, and disaster prevention and remediation should be carried out as soon as possible.

Key words: landslide; variational mode decomposition; deformation prediction; relative error; disaster situation

基金项目：河南省国土资源厅 2018 年度省财政地质科研项目（ 豫国土资发〔2018〕98 号- 12) 。

作者简介： 王荣荣  (1990—) , 女，本科，工程师，研究方向：地质灾害防治 、工程地质 、环境地质 、生态修复勘查设计治理。

收稿日期：2023 - 03 - 04