卫江旗 ，王   猛

（河南省第四地质勘查院有限公司 ，河南 郑州 450001)

摘   要 ：为有效掌握老滑坡复活成因及其后续变形特征，基于老滑坡所处地质条件 ，先开展其复活成因分析，再结合滑坡变形数据，通过 IBA- ELM- CT 模型和 M - K 分析实现其变形预测和趋势评价， 以充分掌握滑坡后续变形特征。结果表明：在老滑坡复活成因分析结果中，地层岩性、地形地貌及地质构造是老滑坡复活的固有因素，降雨和人类工程活动是老滑坡复活的诱发因素，两类因素共同作用造成了老滑坡复活。在滑坡后续变形研究结果中，IBA- ELM- CT 模型具有较高的预测精度，且据外推预测结果，滑坡中部后续变形速率相对更大， 即其后续变形速率趋于增大，后缘与前缘后续变形减少趋势 ；同时，据 M - K 分析结果 ，滑坡中部始终具变形增加特征，对应后缘 、前缘变形后续具减小趋势， 即其变形趋于稳定，此分析结果与预测结果对比，得到滑坡后续变形特征分析结果具有较优的一致性，相互佐证了两类方法的准确性，为滑坡灾害防治提供了一定的参考。

关键词：滑坡 ；复活成因 ；变形预测 ；M - K 分析 ；变形趋势

中图分类号：P642           

文献标志码：A            

文章编号： 1005- 8249   (2024)  06- 0161- 07 

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2024.06.029

WEI Jiangqi ,  WANG Meng

(The Fourth Geological Exploration Institute of Henan Provice Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou 450001 ,   China) 

Abstract: In order to effectively grasp the causes of the revival of the old landslide and its subsequent deformation characteristics, based on the geological conditions of the old landslide, an analysis of its revival causes is carried out first. Then, combined with the landslide deformation data, deformation prediction and trend evaluation are achieved through the IBA-ELM-CT model and M-K analysis, in order to fully grasp the subsequent deformation characteristics of the landslide. The analysis results indicate that in the analysis of the causes of the revival of old landslides, geological lithology, topography, and geological structure are inherent factors for the revival of old landslides, while rainfall and human engineering activities are triggering factors for the revival of old landslides. The combined effect of these two factors leads to the revival of old landslides. In the subsequent deformation research results of landslides, the IBA-ELM-CT model has high prediction accuracy, and according to the extrapolated prediction results, the subsequent deformation rate V2 of DD4 monitoring point is relatively larger, that is, its subsequent deformation rate tends to increase, while the other two monitoring points are the opposite; Meanwhile, according to the M-K analysis results, the middle part of the landslide always shows an increasing deformation trend, while the deformation of the rear and front edges shows a decreasing trend, indicating that their deformation tends to stabilize. Compared with the predicted results, the analysis results of the subsequent deformation characteristics of the landslide have better consistency, which mutually confirms the accuracy of the two methods and provides a certain reference for landslide disaster prevention and control.

Keywords :  landslide;  the  cause of resurrection;  deformation prediction;   M - K analysis;  deformation trend

作者简介： 卫江旗  (1989—) ,  男，本科，工程师，研究方向：地质矿产及地质环境修复。

收稿日期：2023- 08- 24