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周    直 ， 周    鑫

（ 重庆交通大学 经济与管理学院 ，重庆 400074)

摘   要：为准确评价桥梁深水基础大直径双壁钢围堰施工安全风险，针对其评价中模糊性 、随机性、不确定性等特点 ，构建基于最优云熵改进云模型与改进证据理论的风险评价模型 。依据研究文献与标准规范，从人、 物 、管理 、环境 、技术维度建立风险评价指标体系；基于博弈论思想 ，运用改进群组 G1 法与改进 CRITIC 法确  定指标权重；借助最优云熵改进云模型构建基本概率分配函数，引入冲突系数 、Jousselme 距离 、Pignistic 概率  距离与 Tanimoto 测度衡量证据冲突程度并修正证据源，再采用改进证据理论融合专家基本概率分配，且依据非对称贴近度原则确定风险等级。上述模型应用于丰都长江二桥 2# 、3#主墩施工，其评价结果与工程实际相符， 验证了该模型在双壁钢围堰施工安全风险评价中的有效性。

关键词 ：深水基础 ；双壁钢围堰 ；改进云模型 ；改进证据理论 ；风险评价

中图分类号 ：U445 . 55+ 6           

文献标志码 ：A            

文章编号 ：1005- 8249  (2023)   04- 0092- 08

 DOI : 10. 19860/j . cnki . issn1005- 8249. 2023 . 04. 016

ZHOU Zhi ,  ZHOU Xin

( School of Economics and Management ,   Chongqing Jiaotong University ,   Chongqing 400074 ,   China)

Abstract：In order to accurately evaluate the construction safety risk of large diameter double-wall steel confferdam for bridge deepwater foundation, the risk assessment model is established based on the improved cloud model with optimal cloud entropy and the improved evidence theory, aiming at the characteristics of fuzziness, randomness and uncertainty in the assessment process. According to the research literature and standards, the risk assessment index system is established from five dimensions of human, material, management, environment and technology. Based on the game theory, the improved group G1 method and the improved CRITIC method are used to determine the comprehensive weight of each index. With the optimal cloud entropy to improve the cloud model, the basic probability assignment function is constructed, then the conflict coefficient, Jousselme distance, Pignistic probability distance and Tanimoto measure are introduced to measure the evidence conflict and correct the evidence. After that, the improved evidence theory is used to integrate the basic probability assignment of experts, and the risk level is determined according to the principle of asymmetric closeness. The above model is applied to the construction of the 2# and 3# main piers of the Second Yangtze River Bridge in Fengdu. The assessment results are consistent with the actual engineering, which verifies the effectiveness of the model in the construction safety risk assessment of double-wall steel cofferdam.

Keywords：deepwater foundation；double-wall steel confferdam；improved cloud model；improved evidence theory；risk assessme

作者简介 ：周直  (1958—) ,  男 ，博士，教授，研究方向 ：工程项目管理 、风险管理。

通信作者 ：周鑫  (1998—) ,  男 ，硕士研究生，研究方向 ：工程项目管理 、风险管理。

收稿日期 ：2022- 07-29