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王    猛 ¹  , 王荣荣¹ , 史     帅²

( 1. 河南省地质矿产勘查开发局第四地质勘查院 ，河南 郑州 450000;

2. 国家管网集团北方管道有限责任公司郑州输油气分公司 ，河南 郑州 450000)

摘   要： 为合理评价堆积层滑坡的稳定性，该文基于滑坡地质条件及发育特征，先利用传递系数法开展滑坡稳定性的初步分析，再结合变形监测成果，通过变权重组合预测模型实现其变形预测，以分析其稳定性的后续发展趋势，进而综合实现滑坡稳定性评价。实例分析表明： 滑坡变形特征较为显著，且在传递系数法的分析结果中，在天然工况条件下，滑坡均处于稳定状态，但在不利工况条件下，尤其在暴雨工况条件下，稳定性系数范围为 1. 04~ 1. 09 , 属欠稳定～基本稳定状态，即不利工况条件下，滑坡存在较大失稳风险； 同时，变权组合 预测模型在滑坡变形预测结果中具有较小的相对误差均值及方差值，即预测效果较优，且滑坡后续预测速率与现有速率相当，其中 ，1#监测点和 2#监测点的预测速率还相对略大，说明滑坡稳定性将趋于减弱 。通过本文研究，为堆积层滑坡提供了一种稳定性评价方法，值得进一步推广应用研究。

关键词： 堆积层滑坡； 传递系数法； 变权重组合预测； 变形预测； 稳定性评价

中图分类号： P642      

文献标志码： A      

文章编号： 1005-8249 (2023) 04-0134-07

DOI : 10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005-8249.2023.04.022

WANG Meng¹ , WANG Rongrong¹ , SHI Shuai²

( 1. The Fourth Geological Exploration Institute of Henan Geology and Mineral Bureau , Zhengzhou 450000 , China;

2. National Pipe Network Group North Pipeline Co. ，Ltd. ，Zhengzhou Oil and Gas

Transportation Branch , Zhengzhou 450000 , China)

Abstract: In order to reasonably evaluate the stability of the accumulation landslide, based on the geological conditions and development characteristics of the landslide, this paper first uses the transfer coefficient method to carry out the preliminary analysis of the landslide stability, and then combined with the deformation monitoring results, realizes its deformation prediction through the variable weight combination prediction model to analyze the subsequent development trend of its stability, and then comprehensively realizes the landslide stability evaluation. The case analysis shows that the deformation characteristics of the landslide are relatively significant, and in the analysis results of the transfer coefficient method, the landslide is in a stable state under the natural conditions, but under the adverse conditions, especially under the rainstorm conditions, the stability coefficient ranges from 1.04 to 1.09, which belongs to an under stable to basically stable state, that is, under the adverse conditions, the landslide has a greater risk of instability; At the same time, the variable weight combination prediction model has small relative error mean value and variance value in the landslide deformation prediction results, that is, the prediction effect is better, and the subsequent prediction rate of landslide is equivalent to the existing rate. Among them, the prediction rate of 1 # monitoring point and 2 # monitoring point is relatively large, indicating that the landslide stability will tend to weaken. Through this study, it provides a stability evaluation method for accumulation landslide, which is worthy of further application and research.

Keywords: landslide of accumulation layer; transfer coefficient method; variable weight combination forecasting; deformation prediction; stability evaluation

∗基金项目： 河南省国土资源厅 2018 年度省财政地质科研项目（ 豫国土资发〔2018〕98 号-12) 。

作者简介： 王猛  (1988—) , 男，本科，工程师，主要研究方向： 地质灾害防治 、工程地质 、环境地质 、生态修复勘查设计治 理 、地质矿产勘查。

收稿日期： 2023-04-1 1