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何星彦 ， 周    直

（ 重庆交通大学 经济管理与学院 ，重庆 400074)

摘   要 ：“ 十四五 ”规划《 纲要》的有关内容，体现了对 PPP 项目的更高要求，而大力倡导的 EOD 模式 与 PPP 项目的结合，有助于 PPP 项目实现高质量发展 。文章为解决 PPP+ EOD 项目的风险分担问题，在考虑了 风险关联的基础上，刻画了项目风险损失，再立足于演化博弈视角，构建了风险分担演化博弈模型并获得了不同情况下的演化稳定策略 。研究表明：在考虑风险关联条件下，会得到与风险直观损失不同的风险损失值，从而影响政府部门与社会资本的策略选择，进而导致同一风险的演化结果有所不同。

关键词 ：PPP 项目 ；EOD 模式 ；风险分担 ；风险关联 ；演化博弈

中图分类号 ：X22           

文献标志码 ：A            

文章编号 ：1005- 8249  (2023)   04- 0112- 11

 DOI : 10. 19860/j . cnki . issn1005- 8249. 2023 . 04. 019

HE Xingyan ,  ZHOU Zhi

( School of Economics and Management ,   Chongqing Jiaotong University ,   Chongqing 400074 ,   China)

Abstract: The relevant contents of the Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan reflect the higher requirements for PPP projects, and the combination of the EOD model and PPP projects is strongly advocated to help PPP projects achieve high-quality development. In order to solve the risk-sharing problem of PPP+EOD projects, the article describes the project risk loss on the basis of risk association, and then constructs a risk-sharing evolutionary game model based on the perspective of evolutionary game and obtains the evolutionary stabilization strategies under different situations. The study shows that under the condition of risk association, different risk loss values are obtained from the risk intuition loss, which affects the strategy choice of government departments and social capital, thus leading to different evolutionary outcomes for the same risk.

Keywords: PPP project; EOD model; risk sharing; risk association; evolutionary game;

作者简介 ：何星彦  ( 1997—) ,   女 ，硕士研究生 ，研究方向为项目风险管理。

收稿日期 ：2022- 03-31