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白   霖 ，毛红梅 ，王安东 ，李   斌 

（陕西铁路工程职业技术学院 ，渭南 714000)

摘   要 ：为实现基坑沉降变形的高精度预测 ，在总结传统组合预测模型不足基础上 ，先进行单项预测模型  筛选 ，并对各单项预测模型进行参数优化处理 ；其次 ，进一步进行非线性组合及节点间距离的优化处理和考虑  相邻节点的优化处理 ，以实现基坑沉降变形的优化组合预测。结果表明： ELM 模型 、GM  ( 1 ,  1)  模型及 SVR  模型具有很好的互补性 ，可将其作为基础预测模型 ，再通过在沉降变形预测过程中的优化组合处理 ，所得预测  结果的平均相对误差介于 1 . 56% ~ 1 . 65% ,  具较高的预测精度及稳健性 ，并将预测结果与传统模型预测结果比  较 ，得出预测模型具有相对更优的预测精度 ，验证其构建思路是有效的 ，适用于基坑沉降变形预测。通过研究， 以期为基坑变形规律研究提供理论指导。

关键词：基坑 ；沉降变形 ；单项预测模型 ；优化处理 ；组合预测

中图分类号：TU43           

文献标志码：A           

文章编号： 1005- 8249   (2025)  03- 0122- 06

DOI:10. 19860/j.cnki.issn1005 - 8249.2025 .03 .022

 

BAI Lin ,  MAO Hongmei ,  WANG Andong ,  LI Bin

(Shaanxi Railway Institute ,  Weinan 714000 ,  China)

Abstract: In order to achieve high-precision prediction of foundation pit settlement and deformation, based on the summary of the shortcomings of traditional combination prediction models, a single prediction model screening is first carried out, and the parameters of each single prediction model are optimized; Secondly, further optimization of nonlinear combination and distance between nodes, as well as consideration of optimization of adjacent nodes, is carried out to achieve optimized combination prediction of foundation pit settlement deformation. Example analysis shows that: The ELM model, GM (1,1) model, and SVR model have good complementarity and can be used as basic prediction models. Through optimized combination processing in the settlement deformation prediction process, the average relative error of the predicted results ranges from 1.56% to 1.65%, with high prediction accuracy and robustness. The prediction results are compared with those of traditional models, and it is concluded that the prediction model has relatively better prediction accuracy, which verifies the effectiveness of its construction idea and is suitable for predicting foundation pit settlement deformation. Through research, we aim to provide theoretical guidance for the study of deformation laws in foundation pits.

Keywords: foundation pit; settlement deformation; single prediction model; optimization treatment; combination prediction

作者简介： 白    霖  (1992—) ,   男 ，硕士 ，助理工程师 ，研 究方向：桥隧施工技术应用。

收稿日期：2023 - 06 - 09